Why volatility is an opportunity, not a threat
AI & RISK
Why Volatility Isn’t Your Enemy — It’s Your Greatest Opportunity
“Life isn’t just about what happens to you — it’s about how you see it. Your attitude shapes your reality far more than your circumstances ever will. While life may hand you the colours, it’s your mind that decides the masterpiece you create.”John Homer Miller.
A young man once approached an old priest, troubled. “Father,” he said, “I am overwhelmed by negative thoughts. How do I control them?” The priest took him outside. “Open your arms and catch the wind,” he instructed. Confused, the young man replied, “But I cannot grasp the wind!” The priest smiled. Exactly. Just as you cannot stop the wind from blowing, you cannot stop thoughts from entering your mind. But you can decide which ones to hold onto and which to let go.
Like thoughts, market movements are uncontrollable. You can’t predict volatility, but you can choose how to respond.
We all crave certainty — it makes us feel safe. But the truth is, certainty is an illusion. The world has always been unpredictable and it always will be.
In fact, certainty can be the enemy of growth, discovery and even faith.
As they say in Christianity, if everything were certain, there would be no doubt, no mystery — and no need for faith at all. In other words, uncertainty is the only certainty forward.
Who could have predicted the COVID-19 market crash in March 2020 or the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and the sudden outbreak of war in Ukraine?
Just like the wind, big, world-shaking events — like pandemics, political collapses, or wars — are inherently unpredictable. Even experts, armed with data and forecasts, often miss the mark.
You can’t stop market swings, but you can harness them. The key is knowing how to act when they happen.
The easier action for an investor is always to have a long-term view, as the short term could be very difficult to predict.
Volatility breeds uncertainty. Uncertainty triggers fear. But fear, when controlled, becomes an investor’s greatest ally.
Many of the best investments are volatile. They test your patience. They challenge your discipline. And they often come with a price — emotional and financial. But that price is what separates ordinary investors from those who achieve superior long-term returns.
Seth Klarman rejects the idea that volatility equals risk. “We steer clear of the foolhardy academic definition of risk and volatility, recognising instead that volatility is a welcome creator of opportunity.”
Over time, markets tend to recover. Historically, the probability of making money in the long run is overwhelmingly in investors’ favour. But only if they can withstand the ride.
Warren Buffett put it bluntly: “Volatility only hurts those who are forced to sell at the wrong time.”
If you’re overleveraged or emotionally driven, volatility can break you. It forces weak hands to sell at precisely the worst moments. But for those who remain patient, volatility is a gift.
We often try to measure volatility using historical data, but as Nassim Taleb reminds us, “Our problem is not just that we do not know the future; we do not know much of the past either.”
I have seen companies with historically high volatility become stable giants — and vice versa. Volatility is not a static measure of risk. It is simply movement. The real risk is making decisions based on fear that can lead to permanent loss of capital.
Chuck Akre sums it up: “Volatility is a risk only in the short run. If you have an obligation in a year, you don’t want to speculate. But if you have time, you can put that money to work.”
In the early 2000s, Amazon stock plunged over 90%. Many panicked and sold. But those who held? They watched their investments multiply beyond imagination.
The lesson? Volatility doesn’t make something risky — poor decisions do.
Without volatility, there would be no attractive entry points. Asset prices tend to revert to the mean, offering investors a chance to buy great businesses at undervalued prices.
Benjamin Graham captured this perfectly: “Price fluctuations have only one significant meaning for the true investor. They provide an opportunity to buy wisely when prices fall and to sell wisely when they rise.”
Volatility creates opportunity. The key is to embrace it with patience and discipline. The best investors don’t fear the swings — they capitalise on them.
So the next time volatility strikes, don’t run. Get ready. It’s your greatest opportunity.
Awet Ghirmay, Head of Investment Research
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Risk warnings
The value of investments and the income derived from them may fall as well as rise. You may not get back what you invest. This communication is for general information only and is not intended to be individual advice. You are recommended to seek competent professional advice before taking any action. All statements concerning the tax treatment of products and their benefits are based on our understanding of current tax law and HM Revenue and Customs practice. Levels and bases of tax relief are subject to change. This blog is based on my own observations and opinions.
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